Nuclear Posture Review

The first NPR was ordered by Department of Defense (DoD) Secretary Les Aspin, to create a document that comprehensively provides an overview of the United States' nuclear deterrent capabilities in 1993.^[3] The document was inspired by the Bottom-Up Review that was also performed by the DoD. The general theme for the first NPR was to lead and hedge threats from abroad.^[4] The review was organized around six areas of focus: Role of nuclear weapons, nuclear force structure, nuclear force options, nuclear safety and security, and relationship between US nuclear posture, counter-proliferation policy and threat reduction policy with the former Soviet Union.^[5] This review was led by a group of five members, headed by Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear security and Counterproliferation Ashton Carter and Major General John Admire. Owing to the differences in experiences between the two chairs of the review, this led to internal conflict as the NPR was being worked through.^[6][7] After enough discussions, however, the 1994 NPR was approved by President Clinton and published on September 18, 1994.^[3]

The next NPR of 2002 was the second of these reviews of US nuclear forces undertaken by the US Department of Defense. The final report is National Security Classified and submitted to the Congress of the United States.^[8] The 2002 Nuclear Posture Review also included components requiring the "Pentagon to draft contingency plans for the use of nuclear weapons against at least seven countries, naming not only Russia and the "axis of evil"—Iraq, Iran, and North Korea—but also China, Libya and Syria."^[9] Only portions of the report have been released, such as the foreword for the 2002 NPR. In this report, there is a proposal for a new US nuclear triad based on: offensive strike systems, defenses, and a revitalized defense structure.^[10] The NPR also calls for the development of new types of nuclear weapons, as well as retaining 2000 deployed strategic nuclear weapons. Critics have argued that this does the opposite of hedging against global threats and inadvertently promotes nuclear proliferation.^[11]

The NPR's references to nuclear weapons in the event of a "Taiwan contingency" contributed to debates in China should add conditions to its no-first use policy.^[12]:98–99 Proponents of adding conditions contended that doing so would make China's nuclear deterrence more effective if a "Taiwan contingency" occurred.^[12]:99 Ultimately, Chinese leadership rejected the idea of conditioning its no first use policy.^[12]:73

President Barack Obama's 2010 Nuclear Posture Review was preceded by high expectations because of his 2009 speech in Prague, Czech Republic where he prominently outlined a vision of a world without nuclear weapons. His NPR was hoped by observers to make concrete moves toward this goal.^[13] The finished 2010 policy^[14][15][16] renounces development of any new nuclear weapons such as the bunker-busters proposed by the Bush administration, and for the first time rules out a nuclear attack against non-nuclear-weapon states who are in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This rule specifically excludes Iran and North Korea.^[17][18][19]

As part of the implementation of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, the US Government is reviewing its nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear plans to ensure that they are aligned to address today's threats. Rose Gottemoeller, US Acting Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, said in early June 2012 that the United States was considering what forces the United States needed to maintain for strategic stability and deterrence, including extended deterrence and assurance to US Allies and partners. Based on this analysis the United States would develop proposals for potential further reductions in its nuclear stockpile.^[20]

مع انتخاب دونالد ترامب ، أُجريت مراجعة جديدة للوضع النووي برئاسة وزير الدفاع جيمس ماتيس . وأكدت مراجعة الوضع النووي لعام 2018 على ضرورة وجود ثالوث نووي في استراتيجية الدفاع الأمريكية. ^{[ 21 ]} وقدّمت المراجعة خيارات متنوعة، من بينها ضرورة سدّ ثغرة في الترسانة النووية باستخدام أسلحة نووية منخفضة القوة التدميرية. ويشير هذا إلى أن الولايات المتحدة ستدرس استخدام الأسلحة النووية عند الضرورة في نزاع إقليمي محدود النطاق بدلاً من اللجوء إلى حرب نووية شاملة. ^{[ 22 ]} ومن النقاط الأخرى الجديرة بالذكر في مراجعة الوضع النووي لعام 2018، الحاجة إلى تطوير صواريخ كروز بحرية (SLCMs) لتعزيز غواصات الصواريخ الباليستية النووية (SSBN) ضمن الثالوث النووي. كما أكدت المراجعة نية الولايات المتحدة عدم التصديق على معاهدة الحظر الشامل للتجارب النووية، ورفضها لمبدأ معاهدة حظر الأسلحة النووية . ^{[ 23 ]} على الرغم من هذه التوصيات والمواقف، يُقال إن مراجعة الوضع النووي لعام 2018 تُشابه مراجعات الوضع النووي السابقة، لا أنها تختلف عنها. وتؤكد المراجعة أن الأسلحة النووية لا تزال تُستخدم كرادع، وهو الهدف من هذه الإجراءات المقترحة لتحديث الترسانة النووية الأمريكية. ^{[ 24 ]}

وُصِفَ تقرير مراجعة الأسلحة النووية للرئيس جو بايدن لعام 2022 بأنه مشابه في نبرته ومضمونه لتقرير الرئيس أوباما لعام 2010، مع بعض التعديلات الهامة نتيجةً للتطورات في روسيا والصين. وبينما رفض التقرير دعوات إضافة رؤوس حربية جديدة أو تأجيل إخراج رؤوس حربية من الخدمة، فإنه لم يتبنَّ سياسة "الغرض الوحيد" التي فضّلها بايدن خلال حملته الرئاسية لعام 2020. وكما في تقارير مراجعة الأسلحة النووية السابقة، أكّد التقرير أن دور الأسلحة النووية الأمريكية هو ردع الهجمات، وطمأنة الحلفاء والشركاء، وتحقيق الأهداف في حال فشل الردع. ^{[ 25 ] [ 26 ]}